8th District Listed as 'Tossup' in November Election

8th District Listed as 'Tossup' in November Election

Created: August 16, 2018 02:22 PM

A group that uses several sources of data to forecast political races across the country says there's a seven in ten chance that Democrats will take control of the U.S. House of Representatives this fall, but says those Democrats might not necessarily come from the Northland.

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The forecast by Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, released Thursday, lists northeastern Minnesota's 8th Congressional District as a tossup.  The analysis gives Republican Pete Stauber a four in seven chance of winning and Democrat Joe Radinovich a three in seven chance.

The model lists an expected vote share of 48.7 percent for Stauber, 47.3 percent for Radinovich, and 4.1 percent for Independence Party candidate Ray "Skip" Sandman as of Thursday.  The numbers are based on a statistical model that factors in opinion polls, campaign fundraising, and historic voting patterns.

Democrat Rick Nolan, who is not running after three terms representing the seat, won re-election in 2016 by less than one percentage point.  President Donald Trump carried the district by more than 15 points in the same election and has already campaigned in Duluth on behalf of Stauber.

Meanwhile, the analysis gives Wisconsin 7th District Republican Sean Duffy a 99 in 100 chance of winning re-election and Michigan 1st District Republican Jack Bergman a 7 in 8 chance.

The model will be updated through Election Day.

FiveThirtyEight is owned by ABC News.

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